Midterm results complicate 2016 for Rand Paul

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John Paul Baratta, Staff Columnist

Soon after midterm results started to come in, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul was quick to brand the defeated Democratic candidates who Hillary Clinton campaigned for as “Hillary’s Losers.” It was only hours after the polls closed, but the 2016 presidential election campaign had already begun, and Paul targeted the Democrats’ most likely standard-bearer. Analysts have been quick to point out the political drawbacks for Clinton amidst this Republican Party wave, but the former Secretary of State certainly is not the only potential 2016 candidate with more to worry about.

Given the Republican domination in the midterm election, Paul now faces a slew of potential GOP candidates that are energized and still basking in their 2014 victories. The once politically damaged Gov. Chris Christie has emerged as a clear front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination after successfully defending a difficult map as the head of the Republican Governors Association. Christie and Paul have long been intense political rivals: the New Jersey governor attacked Paul’s libertarian ideology, calling it “dangerous” earlier last year. Paul quickly responded by saying Christie was unwilling to make necessary spending cuts. The rivalry appeared to fizzle out during the 2014 election cycle, but with the next election season looming the two are now kicking off a new war of words in the race toward the Republican primary.

Perhaps the most troubling results for Paul were re-elections of Republicans in key swing states, including Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez. With the wind at their backs, several top Republicans now have reason to be more confident about their presidential aspirations. Another complicating factor is Paul’s recent move to the center on a variety of issues.  Although the ideologies of other potential candidates are scattered across the conservative spectrum, a majority of the top contenders are considered mainstream. With the flurry of viable GOP presidential candidates winning their races this cycle, Rand Paul’s role of standing out in a packed field becomes more difficult. The fracturing of the mainstream GOP vote could also lead to a fringe candidate, such as Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, securing the nomination with the support of the right.

Although Paul should find comfort in the abilities of his party to succeed in key swing states, effectively utilize ground support, and appeal to important demographics, the triumph is a double-edged sword. The massive victory for his party places the GOP in a much stronger position for the upcoming presidential election, but the personal drawbacks make Paul’s path to the Republican presidential nomination far more challenging. Still a front-runner out of the gate, Paul must come up with a unique strategy if he is to continue to distinguish himself in an impressive crop of GOP hopefuls.

A version of this article appeared in the Thursday,  Nov. 13 print edition. E-mail John Paul Baratta at [email protected].