I've come to find that everyone seems to think the NBA's top five teams (the Lakers, Spurs, Cavaliers, Celtics and Magic) have all vastly improved. While I agree that the 2010 champion will come from this group, in my eyes, only two of these five teams have actually gotten better.
The Lakers are bringing back virtually the same championship roster, with one major difference: Ron Artest is replacing Trevor Ariza. While the consensus seems to be that this is an automatic upgrade, I just don't see it. Leaving out his mental issues, Artest just doesn't fit the Lakers as well as Ariza did. He's no longer quick enough to shut down opposing guards (something Ariza was able to do), has never displayed anything close to the patience required to run the triangle offense, fizzles in the clutch and is statistically a worse jump-shooter than Ariza.
While the Lakers were busy getting all the off-season buzz, the Western Conference team that truly improved the most was the San Antonio Spurs. Although their success will lie in the ability of Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili to stay healthy, by adding Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess and second-round draft pick DeJuan Blair, the Spurs have added the depth and firepower they need to make one more run at the finals. McDyess is the best center Duncan has had since David Robinson, and Jefferson gives them additional perimeter scoring and defense to take pressure off of Ginobili. With these improvements, and Ron-Ron running amok out in L.A., look for the Spurs to dethrone the defending champs in the West.
Over in the East, the Magic completely shook up their roster by trading Hedo Turkoglu and bringing in Mr. Hustle Vince Carter. Yet they're still getting finals buzz. Has everyone forgotten that Orlando's entire offense was run through Turkoglu as a point-forward? Not to mention that by losing Turkoglu, the Magic now has a conventional starting lineup and can no longer surround Dwight Howard with four three-point shooters or create mismatches. This was their biggest advantage last season, and it was the main reason they were able to propel past Boston and Cleveland in the playoffs.
As for the Cavs, they made the biggest off-season splash by trading for Shaquille O'Neal, a move that's been applauded by almost everyone. But can someone please explain to me how the Shaq trade is a slam-dunk? He can't guard the pick n' roll (which you can be sure teams like the Celtics will run at him non-stop). His presence will eliminate the great floor spacing that the Cavs surrounded LeBron with last year. And Shaq has never shown the ability to play Robin to anyone's Batman. I know you never want to bet against LeBron James, but I just don't see any way we make it through this entire season without having some sort of Shaq controversy.
The only elite team in the East that I feel has actually improved is the Boston Celtics. They have the best starting five in the NBA, and Rasheed Wallace adds much needed depth to their frontcourt. Yes, Garnett missed 25 games and the entire post-season last year due to a right knee sprain, but he looked much healthier so far in the preseason. Between their excellent defense, ability to score and run an efficient playoff offense, and overall commitment to Ubuntu, I expect the Celtics to come out of the East.
Finals Pick: Spurs over Celtics in 7.
