While “Modern Family” might take home its fourth Emmy in a row, the other nominees are just strong enough to create an upset. Lena Dunham’s “Girls” is carrying momentum from its Golden Globes win and “Louie” is a popular newcomer to this category. Realistically, the award will probably go to “30 Rock” for closing out its run with a fantastic final season, which is rare for a show in its last year. Viewers saw characters both old and new say goodbye to a show that always embraced the weirdness of its world, all while keeping them constantly “lizzing.” Surely the Emmy voters will want to award that, as well as give a final piece of recognition to one of their favorites of the past decade.